US Economy Prediction: Good news and bad news

Good news and bad news

While we still project no recession in 2019, early signs point to US GDP growth a little lower than the midpoint of our end-of-2018 projections. At that time, we forecasted GDP growth to come in around 2.25% for 2018 Q4, tapering further to about 1.9% in 2019 Q2. 2018 Q4 came in a bit lower, and we expect a repeat in 2019 Q1. Our forecasts are mostly unchanged — we still see annualized quarterly growth falling under 2% soon — now we expect to drop more rapidly to 1.7% growth in 2019 Q2. In broader terms, we foresee year over year growth in annual US GDP to fall to about 2.2%, far slower than booming 2018. In the context of the 21st century US Economy, 2.2% year-over-year growth doesn’t scare us just yet, but we will continue to monitor macroeconomic indicators into the year.

Micron's sales predictions updated

Predicting Micron’s sales remain close to lower end of guidance     

Our algorithms have updated predictions for Micron’s sales.

  • For quarter ending Feb 2019: $5810M (historical error: 2.4% over last eight quarters)

  • For quarter ending May 2019: $6007M (historical error: 8.7% over last eight quarters)

These numbers are subject to change upon new data arrival and algorithmic evolution.

Predicting 7.6% semi growth in C2019 vs. 14.8% in C2018 02/04/2019

Predicting 7.6% semi growth in C2019 vs. 14.8% in C2018

Our algorithms predict further revenue slowdown for semiconductor chips. For C2019, we predict $509.3B of total semi chip revenues compared to $473.3B in C2018. This translates to 7.6% annual growth in C2019 vs. 14.8% for C2018. Our algorithms attribute this deceleration to a slowdown in new data center infrastructure build and smartphone unit contractions.