US Economy Prediction: Good news and bad news

Good news and bad news

While we still project no recession in 2019, early signs point to US GDP growth a little lower than the midpoint of our end-of-2018 projections. At that time, we forecasted GDP growth to come in around 2.25% for 2018 Q4, tapering further to about 1.9% in 2019 Q2. 2018 Q4 came in a bit lower, and we expect a repeat in 2019 Q1. Our forecasts are mostly unchanged — we still see annualized quarterly growth falling under 2% soon — now we expect to drop more rapidly to 1.7% growth in 2019 Q2. In broader terms, we foresee year over year growth in annual US GDP to fall to about 2.2%, far slower than booming 2018. In the context of the 21st century US Economy, 2.2% year-over-year growth doesn’t scare us just yet, but we will continue to monitor macroeconomic indicators into the year.